Other examples of atrocious behaviour are incursions by France into Algeria to stem independence movements and its claims on (French) Indo-China; the US and Allied invasion of Iraq in 1991 in order to gain a New World [American/Western-driven] Order;[8] the second invasion of Iraq under false pretence in 2003 is to name only a few instances in which Western geo-political and geo-strategic double-standards with regard to good governance have reigned supreme. Whoops that cant be right. Australia ignores this threat at its own peril. With regard to soft power China is critically aware of the political ramifications of Australias poorly thought through foreign policies, and in particular the rage that these have created throughout Indonesia. There ya go. At any rate Australia is in trouble. Among them are the following (but not necessarily in this exact order): The ADF is a highly trained and combat experienced battle force, which continuously invests in acquiring advanced military capabilities that enable it to operate across all current and emerging battle domains. As for Jacqui Lambie how could anyone believe her statements or take them too seriously shes a very loose cannon, and I wouldnt be surprised if the PUP somehow bids her goodbye in the not too distant future. This is especially daunting for Taiwan, as it is unclear whether it can get help from anyone else if, or when, the time comes. This factor, in the first instance is where there are ongoing and developing difficulties. Central banks and trading firms that now hold 60% of their reserves in dollar-denominated bonds would have to rebalance by converting dollars to those other currencies. The problems that will influence the US lack of enthusiasm to intervene in the A-P will range from the sheer distance from the US and of it being a China-controlled environment; intractable domestic and regional dealings with Mexico and the South Americas associated with drugs, migration and political trends; the combined economic, geo-political and in some cases geo-strategic influences of what has become colloquially known as the BRICS, (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa); the ongoing and increasing demands of, and ties to, Israel in a continuously fractious Middle East; and the immersion of energy, politics, and geo-strategies of the stans of Central AsiaKazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. The Battle of Guadalcanal (ie, Solomon Islands) between August 1942 and February 1942 was the first major land offensive undertaken by the Allied forces, including Australia and the US, against Japan, resulting in over 26,000 deaths and the loss of 57 warships and almost 1,300 aircraft. In the process of the West winning however, there has also been double-standards along the way which have undermined the faith and confidence in Western governance and the damage this has caused should not be underestimated. Similarly, China can regularise and intensify cyber-attacks on Australian key assets to cause more disruption and inflict more damage. And moreover, it has used force in the process of making nations adhere to Western principles. The Amnesia Express had a good line in a lyric of a song about defining the difference of Peace to the present state of readiness to war. Darwin is narrow-minded, provincial, over-priced, and un-competitive! The old Roman claim si vis pacem, para bellum if you want peace, prepare for war - is as relevant now as before, and is yet to be answered with confidence. Offensive strike can be interpreted as a series of limited or larger scale prolonged long-distance kinetic and cyber offensive actions, conducted remotely. Countries like Australia need to be careful how they take sides especially with the appalling record of intervention by the US. And we are afraid of China? China snubs US proposal at ASEAN. The Age. Even if an invasion of mainland Australia is a remote possibility, displaying an enhanced capacity to defend the mainland is an effective deterrent in its own right. Chinese support- and/or operated-bases are in their infancy and this will be the case for at least another decade and therefore an invasion would not be strategically viable. On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". Tensions between Beijing and Canberra have been heightened in recent months by a trade war and a blame game over the . What is bound to happen in the near future however, is the A-P region will become increasingly contested, and the disputes will become protracted. On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. The point for Australians to understand is it is a WWII-based belief to assume that the US will come to Australias aid immediately, or as a follow-up to any Chinese show of force. Daily Star Online has contacted United Australia Party for comment. the fighting force - its peacetime and wartime strength, and human mobilisation potential (organized defence reserves and potential for a larger-scale mobilisation); capacity to fight - state of combat readiness and preparedness, including levels of training and operational experience or both deployable units and reserves; state of command and coordination structures; morale and determination to fight; state of military science/strategic and military thought; order of battle - deployable combat and support capabilities and technological edge; endurance - state of national non-human reserves (arsenals, munitions, spare parts, fuel and lubricants and their replenishment capacity); alliances - state of existing alliances; levels of command and fighting elements integration; coordination and planning; foreign military presence and bases; levels of commitment and reliance. Moreover, China has continued to exercise its perceived regional rights with relative impunity; and the PRC recently rejected a US proposal to decrease tensions over the disputed territories,[14] and these are further signs the days of absolute control for the US are over. As US media host Glenn Beck, has pointed out already, China already has first pick of the best and cheapest oil, starting in its own backyard of Russia., so as you readers can guess, America can no longer compete, as it no longer has access to the worlds cheapest oil. In fact it seems to misfire all over the place jumps back and forth in history . All of these instances have had the enduring effect of proving Western liberal-democracy is the most venerable and robust of all governments and governance. CMMC, I fully agree with your summation,perfect.Could not have put it clearer myself. China over the next decade will be dealing with its expansion in the A-P region in a much softer way, as it has done in the region generally, and in Africa and Oceania. It led, Australian Alliance for Animals Media Release Fate of Koalas Hangs in Balance as, Ok, I had trouble with the punctuation for the title. In the context of this analysis an attack includes an actual attempt to deploy adversarial offensive military power on Australias shores. The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. In parallel with this the other issue for Australia will be whether Australia is also able to fend off Americas increasing desperation to maintain its traditional post-WWII foothold as it too, and in order to fulfil its rebalancing claims, must enter the regional quarrels. However, I also have to say, that all Chinese people I have met or had anything to do with, and thats a lot, are quiet, law-abiding, gentle and helpful people. Australia is a sitting duck (like pre-war Poland was for Nazi Germany & Stalinist Russia), due to the fact, that we are under-populated, have some of our best resourced land run by corrupt Aboriginal communities who over-charge mining companies rip-off rates for the privilege of digging up the north of Australia. Roger October 23, 2015 at 2:28 pm. I wonder why the Chinese are bulding the bases in the south china sea now. We use your sign-up to provide content in the ways you've consented to and improve our understanding of you. Sydney: Murdoch Press. You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: Your email address will not be published. What the hell have we done? War is inevitable. [4] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932 Australia Network News, 19 August,, 2014. Also our most northern city, Darwin (or Wolf Creek) is a complete joke ! I wont go into the importance of our location to those Interests here. In short, Senator Lambies outburst is largely accurate, premature perhaps, but based on British and American preponderance, accurate nevertheless. By Dr Alexey Muraviev | Analysis | 2 September 2021, Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise, noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, open confrontation with the United States, Advertise with Australian Defence Magazine, Advertise with the Defence Industry Guide. The largest ever Australian warship sunk in battle, HMAS . One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. Many are asking what lessons China is drawing from Russia's invasion of Ukraine for its own plans to bring Taiwan to heel. Although detailed information about national stockpiles of munitions, critical spares, and fuel is not wholly open-source it is logical to expect that the ADF holds sufficient resources to engage in high tempo large scale operations for a certain period of time. However, the relevant issue is invasions gain results which inevitably have to be repelled, defused or accepted. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/jacqui-lambie-refuses-to-apologise-for-warning-of-chinese-invasion/story-fn59niix-1227038207396. The ADFs combat experience in campaigns fought in the Middle East and Afghanistan is valuable, but would it help to fight against a high tempo campaign near-peer adversary? Dear Jaquie, please define what you consider to be statesmanship. Geography still plays a very important part in war. Send, And there's The Spud raging about how the tax increase, Who should take the blame for the current, Party Policies on Koalas Revealed Ahead of NSW, Sensitivity Rewrites: The Cultural Purging of Roald Dahl, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932, http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html, http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world, MP Tudge Leaves In Order To Spend Less Time With. Or so it seems. Francis Fukuyama would deem the collapse of communism to be the end of history,[7] which translates in simpler terms, to liberal-democracy as a form of government winning against communism. Prior to making any judgements this mix of pros and cons has to be examined more closely, starting with the former. With all the talk of hurting Russia economically a Western European expert said theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. Its attempts to economically coerce Australia into its geopolitical orbit should disturb. http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445. There is much China could gain from such an overt act as part of a grand strategy of preponderance; to force Australia to rethink its US ties; to gain greater access to Australias resources upon which it depends; as a signal to regional enemies that it is the force to be reckoned with; and to show regional allies it is the most powerful and dynamic actor. Australia has no political leader capable of seeing the futility of following the US line in Asia. The island of about 25 million people, backed by the US and Japan, broke away from the mainland in 1949 when the losers of its civil war fled Mao Zedong's brutal communist regime. It is safe to assume that in the event of a large-scale invasion of mainland Australia, the ADFs response capacity would be overstretched beyond any reasonable expectation of waging effective defensive operations. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Operationally and tactically the ADF should ready to function in a combat setting where no domain control is guaranteed against a superior and determined enemy, who may also be less susceptible to sustaining heavy losses. Simply unbelievable that our parliament is now dominated by self serving [insert adjective]. A superior force could, by definition, prevail in any circumstances, but flying combat aircraft into these company airfields is sensational nonsense, he said. We are proud, as with every other Ukrainian in Australia, to proclaim that Ukraine stands: Ukraine stands strong, Ukraine stands proud, and, most importantly, Ukraine stands free. These are among the powerful predictions the world looks set to face as it comes to grip with new powers, financial slowdowns and emerging economies. I think we are in for a few surprises as the old economic and political models falter and global warming becomes a real issue. Everyone is doing it hard at present. I just wonder why the author thinks that Americas debt would be a protective factor in preventing a conflict with China. These past weeks have seen Clive Palmer MP berate the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) government and other (Chinese) that have had business dealings with him. And moreover, for the US Australia would not be the only game in town. Reflecting on this statement, a significant part of the reason the US lost the Vietnam War is that it was not the only game in town[13] as it was beset with domestic civil strife, had ongoing issues with the Soviet Union-Cuba alliance, and had European Cold War commitments as well as the space race. An Australia-China conflict will also adhere to the not the only game in town principle for the US and for Australians to believe that the US will see a conflict in the A-P region as important enough to warrant an immediate response is simply wrong. Australia has been warned to expect a Chinese "strategic surprise" in 2022. !! According to Prof Blaxland, the old truths that have kept Australia safe from invasion - except for the colonial project beginning in 1788 - are still in play. Once again the making of such a statement can be given credence by observing that America is fiscally bankrupt to China, and owes the PRC trillions of dollars and the US would simply not risk China calling in its debt/s as this would devastate the US domestic economy. They have too many internal problems to contemplate any sort of world conflict. Australia has fallen out with China in recent years over significant geopolitical issues, including Beijing's territorial ambitions in the South China Sea and the COVID-19 pandemic. He questionedwhatthey would do after landing in Pilbara. It would be the nightmare from hell to contain. I do not see China repeating the British industrial revolution or the colonial pretensions that followed it. Who cares as long as we have god on our side, and Captain Catholic. Driven by the need to close the capability gap with their Russian counterparts, with which the PLA trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, it will be some time before its Airborne Corps will be able to support long distance strategic assault operations. Maybe her comment was not as stupid as everybody thought at the time. The Islands that Japan is arguing over were residue of second world war negotiations in which the pre-war possessions should eventually return to China. On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Beyond incompetence and corruption Untroubled by the burdens of either wit or intelligence the embaldened tubermensch who, for now, leads the, Alan Tudge is leaving Parliament. The airport is attached to an iron ore mine privately run by Chinese mining company CITIC. With all of the above-mentioned commentary, and in particular because Monk has drawn into the mix an historical pivot, there is a need to examine these issues further to highlight where the fear comes from, and where it has its roots. Washington DC think-tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies established its Australia Chair this week. To be sure, the US essentially having been sidelined to that of an equal rather than a superior player in the next decade is already being put into place by China. Mbius EckoSeptember 9, 2014 at 8:17 pm Theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. From what I have heard from non-Anglo News Sources, this may already be the case. Australia, PNG, NZ & Indonesia, Malaysia, combined, would barley muster 300 million people, up against Chinas 1 Billion, (with a huge growing middle-class hitting the 500 Million mark). The question that can now be asked and the one that returns to the core of this article, is will this result in an invasion of Australia? A superior military air force could, in effect, control all of Western Australias resources in the Pilbara and the North West Shelf gas reserves.. What is happening in China, and has been exponentially expanding in the past decade, is the PRC has set about accomplishing exactly what the West has done for centuries: developing a strong middle-class. Another potential problem that the ADF may face in this scenario is endurance, particularly if Australia is fighting alone. War is a fools game and China knows it. From the big bad Toniorists. How did it satisfy the demands of its ever-growing middle-classes? We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. [8] Gabriel Kolko. China's ambassador to Australia says Canberra should be wary of its relationship with Japan, reminding them that Japanese troops attacked Australia during World War II and could do the same again. Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), said that in the case of war breaking out between China and Taiwan, Australia would be pulled into the conflict by the US. Hint, you have to disregard your sordid trainwreck of conceit and bile and adopt a viewpoint removed from spiteful recriminations. The progress became an ever-upward spiral in which the dictums of modern nation-statehood that is, economic growth equalling stable investment environments for Western enterprises were ones that offered ongoing prosperity; and the middle-class continuum. The US would expect Australia to contribute air and naval forces such as warships HMAS Hobart and HMAS Stalwart, seen here with Japanese and US in the South China Sea last year. Gosh and golly. That means ending all Muslim immigration forthwith, closing Mosques, Madrases, Islamic book shops and cultural centres and the reversal of the numbers of Muslims in Australia, by removal or natural attrition. This raises again the question of alliance obligation, and the subsequent need by Washington to make it very clear to China that an attack on Australia will trigger an allied response. The wild claims continue later in the advert, with former Royal Australian Navy commander Phil Collins saying it has the facilities to support and sustain large-scale naval operations. A war . War with China is just a silly sensationalist drivel. Just remember how many millions of Chines were murdered by the Japanese and the picture becomes clearer. The importance of outposts and the enhanced capabilities they offer can be seen through Britain in the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas, the US in Guam, Diego Garcia and the United Arab Emirates. Some critics argue that China has an ageing population, that is correct, but also China has a growing Middle-class and needs/wants more resources, and the resources from neighbouring Russia wont be enough! In the process of the IRs momentum the British government had to meet ever greater demands from its populace. For Russia, China and India this looks like a win/win. particularly June Bullivant. Have a friend who was Ambassador to China and it would not take much to regain their respect. Secondly, China deploys a long-range strike capability (conventional and unconventional), which allows it to target Australia. These aircraft would be out of fuel and would probably have exhausted their missiles and bombs, Dr Huisken said. I see China recovering its position as the premier country in Asia and re-establishing its control, or influence where control was not required, over the countries in its periphery. If a more solid outcome and strategic footprint air- and sea-bases in Indonesia is enabled by the PRC beyond the current military outposts of Pakistan and Myanmar the danger/s for Australia exponentially increase and an invasion would be more likely. The ADF should be readying itself for a conflict with a major military power. China has issued yet another warning to Australia following its participation in a seven-day naval exercise with French, US and Japanese allies. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa A former Japanese military officer recently made waves after saying he believes China plans to invade and annex Taiwan by 2025 and Okinawa by 2045. The petrodollar became the currency in which oil and most other goods were traded internationally, requiring every central bank and major corporation to hold a lot of dollars and cementing the greenbacks status as the worlds reserve currency. As insulted as the Chinese community feels toward Palmer, his outburst was attributed to his frustration with the legal system, his dealings with some Chinese business people and when it all imploded, he drew in other societal elements. What Australia can do to better improve its immediate security and harmony is withdraw from the UN Refugee Accords, and accept only those who meet strict selection, suitability and civility criteria. It is at this point that the historical element as well as the dangers for other actors particularly Australia in the A-P region and the invasion scenario to which Lambie alludes can be introduced. So, I agree with your conclusion.. Great program on the War To End All Wars circa 1914-18 on ABC tonight. The inherent problems of continuous growth notwithstanding, what is happening in China today happened in Great Britain as the latter part of the Industrial Revolution (IR) gained momentum circa 1800 onwards. Maybe it would be useful to calculate the number of democratically elected Governments the US has deposed compared to China. Sign up to the Daily Star's newsletter. By Alan Dupont. After the next decade for Australia all will not be so secure. Chinas dominance is that of being a global geo-political and geo-strategic actor and thus, current preponderance in the A-P is only the first step, and an even stronger global military presence will follow. I agree that corporatisation is our greatest threat and the problem is that only governments can protect us by way of regulation. 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This in turn has allowed the US to build a global military empire, a cradle-to-grave entitlement system, and a credit-based consumer culture, without having to worry about where to find the funds. A new survey released Tuesday by the Lowy Institute, a foreign policy research group, found only a slim majority of Australians supported military action in the event of a Chinese invasion of . Returning to Senator Lambie, and her comment about the Chinese invasion of Australia,[1] it can be safely assumed that what Lambie is actually referring to is contained in a broad military context: an air- and sea-borne attack culminating in a boots-on-the-ground, physical armed presence not dissimilar to the one taking in place in Ukraine by Russian forces in recent times; the Argentinian invasion of the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas in the early 1980s; and the United States invasion of Iraq in 2003. As the decade toward 2025 grinds on the massive influence China will have will cause the displacement of Australias and as such, the Chinese will not automatically accept Australias definitions of how the A-P should be controlled: this will cause problems. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. Furthermore, as the US is forced to shift its focus toward Central Asia, the South Americas and Israel, this will make Australia more vulnerable. Corporatisation is our greatest threat and the picture becomes clearer what i have heard from News! Of making nations adhere to Western principles hostile intent by the US Australia not. Cyber-Attacks on Australian key assets to cause more disruption and inflict more damage the Centre strategic. A formal declaration of hostile intent agree with your conclusion.. Great program on the other hand, deploys... On ABC tonight the largest ever Australian warship sunk in battle, HMAS in,. Daily Star Online has contacted United Australia Party for comment and un-competitive Australia into geopolitical... 1914-18 on ABC tonight judgements this mix of pros and cons has to statesmanship... Line in Asia starting with the former has issued yet another warning to Australia following participation. Offensive cyber operations against its adversaries long as we have god on our side when will china invade australia... Http: //www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932 Australia Network News, 19 August,, 2014 but based British! Defused or accepted an attack includes an actual attempt to deploy adversarial offensive military power services inserted in comment. If Australia is fighting alone offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent parliament! 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